THESIS: As violence from Syria spills across the border into Lebanon,
commentators in the Lebanese media described the country as being on the brink
of conflict, and considered that the unrest in Syria was exposing Lebanon‘s political
divisions and the weaknesses of its government. Both sides of the political
spectrum also take the opportunity to blame their political opponents for Lebanon’s
increasing involvement in Syria’s violence.
BACKGROUND: This analysis focuses on coverage from five major Lebanese
news outlets with various ideological viewpoints. As Habib Battah, Managing
Editor of the Beirut-based Middle East Broadcasters Journal has said "Every
Lebanese TV channel has a propaganda leaning. Some try to be balanced, but all
have their agendas. It's pretty clear from the content they produce."[1]
Al-Manar is Hezbollah’s official television station, which also
publishes articles online. Widely considered to be biased in favor of extremist
violence, it has been designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S.
government, and it has been blocked in several European countries. Annahar is
Lebanon’s most widely read daily newspaper, with a circulation of about 40,000[2].
It
is not formally affiliated with any political party, but it expresses
anti-Hezbollah and anti-Assad opinions[3]
. Assafir is the second most widely-read newspaper. While it is not affliated with Hezbollah it
generally supports the policy of ‘Islamic
resistance’3 The English-language Daily
Star , founded to serve Lebanon’s expatriate community, is prolific and generally considered unbiased on Lebanon’s
domestic affairs[4].
Another English-language source, Ya Libnan, was originally intended to
chronicle the events surrounding assassination of the former Prime Minister
Rafic Hariri, and it maintains pro-reform, anti-Hezbollah stance[5].
OBSERVED: One of the principal actors in Lebanon’s relationship with Syria is
Hezbollah, which has a significant place in Lebanon’s government. Many of the reports highlight Syria's
long-term patronage of Hezbollah, and consider it likely that Hezbollah would
fight for the Assad regime. Several
different writers accused Hezbollah of confusing Syria’s interests with the
interests of Lebanon. An opinion
columnist for Ya Libnan said that by supporting Syria, Hezbollah is
jeopardizing its transition from an armed militia into a mainstream civilian
authority[6]. He emphasized that disarmament would be a
necessary element of Hezbollah's progress, but that involvement in the Syrian
conflict would cause Hezbollah to become more militant. If Hezbollah becomes
involved in the unrest in Syria, it would be able use this to justify retaining
its arms, just as it used the Israeli presence in South Lebanon as a reason to
arm. Furthermore, since the Syrian opposition has
popular support in Lebanon, acting against them might cost Hezbollah the
popular support it has gained in the past decades as Lebanon’s champion against
Israel.
Some reports indicated that Hezbollah may have already made
its choice about involvement in Syria. An ally of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan
Nasrallah quoted him as saying that they will
support Syria's government in the event of foreign military intervention[7],
and the Free Syria Army said that Hezbollah is already fighting on behalf of
Syria’s government.
Reports in Ya Libnan[8]
and The Daily Star[9]
noted that Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati seemed to be distancing himself
from Syria, particularly by attending a meeting held by Syria’s regional rival
Saudi Arabia, as well as visiting Syria's estranged neighbor Turkey. Several observers suggested that Syria’s
current preoccupation makes this a perfect moment for Lebanon to break free of
the influence of the Assad regime. A
writer for the Daily Star said that if Lebanon can get its political
house in order now, it can resist future Syrian interference. However, many media outlets blamed Lebanon’s
governmental disorganization for allowing Assad forces to cross the border with
impunity and kidnap Lebanese citizens.
Another Daily Star[10]
column pointed out that in most countries one such incident would be
considered an act of war, but it has happened in Lebanon repeatedly and the
Lebanese government has done little about it. The author also expressed outrage
about the lack any government response to the networks of spies that have been
discovered in the country.
While the majority of the coverage revolved around the
relationship between Lebanon and the Assad regime, reports also expressed
concern about the presence of opposition forces in the country, particularly in
the town of Wadi Khalid. Moreover,
Al Manar [11]reported
that groups of fighters are traveling as far as Beirut to recover from the
fighting and gather supplies. The same
report described the large amount of popular support that these rebels have in
Syria.
Assafir[12] worried that Wadi Khalid will become
merely a weapons depot for the Syrian resistance and will end up outside of Lebanese
control. The writer added that the Lebanese involved in cross-border counter-
abductions were associated with the opposition March 14 movement. A few
editorial writers also speculated that the presence of the Sunni Free Syria
Army in the region will stir up the sectarian tensions, which have already been
evident in the clashes in Tripoli, and reawaken Lebanon’s internal religious conflicts.
ASSESSMENT: Political observers
are concerned that Hezbollah's alignment with the Assad regime will derail
their transition from an armed militia to a mainstream political party, and
then a struggle between Hezbollah and the other elements of the government that have been distancing themselves from
Syria will destabilize the fragile government further. Syria's interference in Lebanese affairs is
obviously resented, but none of the observers seem to believe that its possible
for Lebanon to successfully distance itself from Syria and its crises.
There was considerable outrage over the Lebanese government's
inability to protect its borders in response to kidnappings and cross border
attacks, which are considered demonstrative of its weakness. The government was also criticized for
allowing the Free Syria Army to use Wadi Khalid as a de facto base and weapons
depot, particularly as it may become a target for retaliation by Syria’s
government.
Furthermore, although there seemed to be sympathy for the Syrian
opposition, many writers worried what the presence of armed foreign fighters
will do to stability, and that the conflict between those in the north who
support the opposition and those who oppose it will deepen the already existing
divides in the volatile region. Also, the armed groups from both sides that
apparently travel freely through Lebanon demonstrate the country’s security
problems.
Most of the opinion columnists emphasized the role that their
political opponents are playing in dragging Lebanon into the Syrian
crises. Opposition papers decried
Syria’s long-term interference in Lebanese affairs, and warned of the
consequences of Hezbollah’s close relationship with the Assad government. They
implied that Hezbollah’s leadership values the interests of Syria more highly
than those of Lebanon. Conversely, the pro-Hezbollah media outlets suggested
that their opponents’ sympathy for Syria’s opposition movement gives the Free
Syria Army a dangerous foothold within Lebanon itself. Both sides of Lebanon’s
political debate clearly wish to distance themselves from responsibility for
the spread of violence, while implicating the opposition.
Overall, there was a sense that Lebanon’s slide into the
morass of the Syrian conflict was inevitable, that Hezbollah will continue to
act as a Syrian proxy, that the central government will remain ineffective, and
that Lebanon, from Wadi Khalid to Beirut, will become another battleground for
the conflict.
REFERENCES:
“Hezbollah on Syrian Quicksand.” Ya Libnan 29 June
2012. http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/06/29/hezbollah-on-syrian-quicksand/
Analysis: A turning point in Lebanon Ya Libnan 5 June
2012. http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/06/05/analysis-a-turning-point-in-lebanon/
“Hula massacre and the exploitation of the ambiguity surrounding
the Syrian-Lebanese Border” Al Manar 6 July 2012 http://www1.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?fromval=2&cid=171&frid=31&seccatid=171&eid=249869
“Beirut ... A safe city to for Syrian
opposition fighters “ Al Manar 3 July 2012. http://www1.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?fromval=2&cid=171&frid=31&seccatid=171&eid=265429
“Double trouble “ The Daily Star 3
July 2012 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Editorial/2012/Jul-03/179122-double-trouble.ashx#axzz1znjfd3byv
“Lebanon fears being sucked into the Syrian
storm” The Daily Star 14 June 2012. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Jun-14/176793-lebanon-fears-being-sucked-into-the-syrian-storm.ashx#axzz2046Wv4QM
“Iran, Hezbollah to defend Syria from
'attack': militant.” The Daily Star. 3 July 2012 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jul-03/179209-iran-hezbollah-to-defend-syria-from-attack-militant.ashx#axzz20PSfHwk1
“Lebanon and the Expected Explosion” Annahar 5 July 2012 http://www.annahar.com/article.php?t=makalat&p=14&d=24781&dt=2012-07-05%2000:00:00
“The Strategy Needed to Protect Domestic
Security so that the Fire Does not Spread to Lebanon” Annahar 6 July 2012. http://www.annahar.com/article.php?t=makalat&p=5&d=24781&dt=2012-07-06%2000:00:00
The Security of Hezbollah and the Security
of Lebanon .Annahar. 11 July 2012. http://www.annahar.com/article.php?t=makalat&p=23&d=24786&dt=2012-07-11%2000:00:00
“Chaos Reigns In North Lebanon, Where
Military has Lost Control.” Assafir 14 June 2012 http://assafir.com/MulhakArticle.aspx?EditionId=2198&MulhakArticleId=503954&MulhakId=3922
[1]
Paul, Cochrane. "Are Lebanon's Media Fanning the Flames of
Sectarianism?" Arab Media and Society Summer 2 (2007)
[3]
Trombetta, Lorenzo. "Media Landscape - Lebanon - European Journalism
Centre." European Journalism Centre. European Journalism Centre, 8 Nov.
2010.
[6] “Hezbollah
on Syrian Quicksand.” Ya Libnan 29 June 2012. http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/06/29/hezbollah-on-syrian-quicksand/
[7] “Iran,
Hezbollah to defend Syria from 'attack': militant.” The Daily Star. 3 July 2012
http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Jul-03/179209-iran-hezbollah-to-defend-syria-from-attack-militant.ashx#axzz20PSfHwk1
[8] Analysis:
A turning point in Lebanon Ya Libnan 5 June 2012. http://www.yalibnan.com/2012/06/05/analysis-a-turning-point-in-lebanon/
[9] “Lebanon
fears being sucked into the Syrian storm” The Daily Star 14 June 2012. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Jun-14/176793-lebanon-fears-being-sucked-into-the-syrian-storm.ashx#axzz2046Wv4QM
[10] “Double
trouble “ The Daily Star 3 July 2012 http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Editorial/2012/Jul-03/179122-double-trouble.ashx#axzz1znjfd3byv
[11] “Beirut
... A safe city to for Syrian opposition fighters “ Al Manar 3 July 2012. http://www1.almanar.com.lb/adetails.php?fromval=2&cid=171&frid=31&seccatid=171&eid=265429
[12] “Chaos
Reigns In North Lebanon, Where Military has Lost Control.” Assafir 14 June 2012
http://assafir.com/MulhakArticle.aspx?EditionId=2198&MulhakArticleId=503954&MulhakId=3922
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